Country
Peru PER
BCRP
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.9
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap91.2
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve29.4
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-02 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical44.3
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth57.4
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity62.9
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance43.4
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Peru sovereign credibility, in brief
Peru scores 56.8 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 3 of 5 in South America, the 60th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 4.1% vs 2.0% target (+2.1pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (57/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctPeru's composite score is moderate at 56.8, but CPI sits 2.1pp above target, which drives a 91.2 credibility gap.
- Composite position: The score of 56.8 ranks third of five in South America and beats the regional average of 49.7.
- Inflation gap: CPI at 4.1% is above the 2.0% target, the main drag on credibility.
- Policy stance: The 4.2% policy rate sits close to inflation, leaving the real rate near zero.
- Geopolitics: The pressure score is 44.3, but recent events are mostly domestic crime and local politics with a weak macro link.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 4.2% policy rate, and any BCRP guidance on the gap.
Peer context
Rank 3/5 in South America · 60th percentile
Region avg 49.7 · best 58.6 · worst 19.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -5.6%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +2.5%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +5.7%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 120.4 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 3.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 5.4 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 3.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 3.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.0 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 1.7M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -29.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 1.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 10.4 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 51.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 5.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 34.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $9,684 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 35.2% | 2021-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 71.7% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.