Country
South Africa ZAF
SARB
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +1.7
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve50.0
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-05 · coverage: gold
Communication80.2
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical44.5
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Growth39.4
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Liquidity53.6
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Governance50.4
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
South Africa sovereign credibility, in brief
South Africa scores 61.6 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 2 of 43 in Sub-Saharan Africa, the 98th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.7 points over the past seven days. CPI 4.3% near 4.5% target — on target | adequate credibility (62/100) | slightly improving.
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctSARB has a solid communication and inflation position, but a composite of 61.6 is only adequate.
- Composite position: The 61.6 score ranks South Africa #2 of 44 in Sub-Saharan Africa, 12 points above the regional average of 49.3.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 4.3% sits 0.2pp below the 4.5% target.
- Policy stance: The 7.2% policy rate scores 50/100 on behind-the-curve, a neutral reading.
- Communication: The communication stance scores 80.2/100, the strongest sub-score and the main support for the composite.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 44.5/100, driven by xenophobic attacks and anti-immigration protests in Johannesburg in early October.
- Watch item: Whether the xenophobic violence spreads beyond Johannesburg and starts to affect business confidence.
Peer context
Rank 2/43 in Sub-Saharan Africa · 98th percentile
Region avg 49.3 · best 61.6 · worst 14.1
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -7.2%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -0.9%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -4.3%
- as of 2026-03-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 8.8% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 107.7 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 18.0 | 2026-03-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | -0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 1.9M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -4.6% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 6.2 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 60.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 32.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 32.3% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 44.8% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $6,598 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 82.8% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 55.6% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.