Country
Turkey TUR
CBRT
score date 2026-09-08
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap0.1
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-06-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve28.7
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-08-28 · coverage: gold
Communication54.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-09-08 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical45.4
GDELT · as of 2026-09-08 · coverage: gold
Growth41.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-09-08 · coverage: gold
Liquidity58.4
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-09-08 · coverage: gold
Governance37.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-09-08 · coverage: gold
Turkey sovereign credibility, in brief
Turkey scores 16.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band < 35. That ranks it 10 of 10 in Middle East, the 10th percentile of the region. CPI 32.1% vs 5.0% target (+27.1pp) — critical overshoot | credibility severely compromised (17/100).
As of 2026-09-08 · scored daily from public data under methodology v6
Executive summary
written 5 Sept · score 8 SeptTurkey's credibility crisis deepens as inflation diverges 94pp from the 5% target, forcing the CBRT to maintain an extreme 37% policy rate while fighting persistent demand-pull pressures and currency instability.
- Composite position: 48.7/100 places Turkey in the bottom decile of Middle East peers, signaling severe macro imbalances and limited policy flexibility.
- Inflation disconnect: At -89.2% versus the 5% target, the 94pp gap reflects either data credibility issues or a structural inflation regime the CBRT has failed to anchor.
- Behind the curve: A 37% real policy rate signals emergency-level tightening; the 78.5/100 score indicates the CBRT is reactive rather than preemptive.
- Communication weakness: 54.5/100 suggests messaging inconsistency that undermines forward guidance and market confidence in disinflationary intent.
- Geopolitical overhang: Regional tensions (NATO reinforcements, Azerbaijan-Israel-Armenia dynamics) create external vulnerabilities; Turkey's NATO role offers some hedge but adds unpredictability.
- Watch item: Next inflation print and any CBRT policy signaling; credibility repair requires either rapid disinflation or frank recalibration of targets.
Peer context
Rank 10/10 in Middle East · 10th percentile
Region avg 53.2 · best 61.3 · worst 16.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -31.9%
- as of 2026-09-09
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.0%
- as of 2026-09-09
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -5.9%
- as of 2026-05-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -0.3%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 130.0 | 2026-06-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.8% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 26.2 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 3.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.3 | 2026-08-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 110.8 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 7.5M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 0.3% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.1% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 4.7 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 206.2 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 14.7% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 49.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 8.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 8.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 39.4% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $18,599 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 26.6% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 53.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.6 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.1 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -1.0 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.2 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.8 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.1 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
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