Country
Turkey TUR
CBRT
score date 2026-08-26
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap40.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-06-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve78.7
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-08-14 · coverage: gold
Communication54.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-08-26 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical44.5
GDELT · as of 2026-08-26 · coverage: gold
Growth37.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-08-26 · coverage: gold
Liquidity43.1
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-08-26 · coverage: gold
Governance37.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-08-26 · coverage: gold
Turkey sovereign credibility, in brief
Turkey scores 48.8 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 35–50. That ranks it 10 of 10 in Middle East, the 10th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 0.4 points over the past seven days. CPI -89.2% vs 5.0% target (-94.2pp) — well below target | credibility under pressure (49/100).
As of 2026-08-26 · scored daily from public data under methodology v4
Executive summary
written 23 Aug · score 26 AugTurkey's central bank credibility is under severe strain, with inflation 94pp above target and policy rates defensive at 37%, positioning the CBRT as the region's worst performer amid mounting geopolitical volatility.
- Composite score: 49.2/100 signals moderate institutional credibility, ranking dead last in Middle East peer group (10th of 10).
- Inflation disconnect: CPI at -89.2% vs 5.0% target creates a 94.2pp credibility gap—the primary risk vector for TRY stability.
- Policy behind curve: 37.0% policy rate suggests CBRT is playing catch-up rather than forward-guiding through disinflationary cycle.
- Geopolitical drag: 44.2/100 pressure score reflects municipal corruption, internal security incidents, and regional proxy tensions clouding policy autonomy.
- Communication weakness: 54.5/100 stance indicates unclear forward guidance and mixed messaging on commitment to 5% target.
- Watch: Near-term TRY weakness likely if inflation data fails to converge toward target in next 6-8 weeks.
Peer context
Rank 10/10 in Middle East · 10th percentile
Region avg 55.9 · best 62.9 · worst 48.8
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -12.0%
- as of 2026-08-27
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.0%
- as of 2026-08-27
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -5.9%
- as of 2026-05-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -0.3%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.8% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 26.2 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 3.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.6 | 2026-07-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 110.8 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 7.5M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 0.3% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.1% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 4.7 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 206.2 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 14.7% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 49.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 8.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 8.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 39.4% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $18,599 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 26.6% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 53.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.6 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.1 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -1.0 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.2 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.8 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.1 | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
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