Country
Turkey TUR
CBRT
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.7
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap0.1
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve39.2
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-02 · coverage: gold
Communication25.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical45.1
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Growth48.1
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity66.5
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance38.4
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Turkey sovereign credibility, in brief
Turkey scores 17.4 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band < 35. That ranks it 10 of 10 in Middle East, the 10th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 31.5% vs 5.0% target (+26.5pp) — critical overshoot | credibility severely compromised (17/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctTurkey ranks last of ten Middle East central banks, with a critical composite score of 17.4/100 against a regional average of 53.1.
- Composite position: The 17.4/100 score ranks #10 of 10, 35.7 points below the regional average.
- Inflation gap: CPI at 31.5% sits 26.5pp above the 5.0% point target, and the credibility gap scores 0.1/100.
- Policy stance: The 37.0% policy rate is 5.5pp above CPI, yet the behind-the-curve score is 39.2/100 and communication scores 25.5/100.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 45.1/100, but most of the ten headlines are local incidents with little macro signal.
- Near-term watch: The next CBRT rate decision and whether guidance sets a credible path back toward 5%.
Peer context
Rank 10/10 in Middle East · 10th percentile
Region avg 53.1 · best 61.1 · worst 17.4
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -13.7%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.0%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -5.9%
- as of 2026-05-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -0.3%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 134.8 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -1.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 26.2 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 3.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.4 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 110.8 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 7.5M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 0.3% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 5.1 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 206.2 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 14.7% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 49.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 8.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 8.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 39.4% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $18,599 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 25.5% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 53.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.