Country
Sri Lanka LKA
CBSL
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +0.5
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-06-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical47.8
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth51.5
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity43.2
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance46.8
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Sri Lanka sovereign credibility, in brief
Sri Lanka scores 59.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 2 of 7 in South Asia, the 86th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 6.8% vs 5.0% target (+1.8pp) — mild overshoot | credibility under pressure (60/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctSri Lanka's credibility gap is at its maximum, with CPI 1.8 points above the target band, though its composite score of 59.7 ranks second in South Asia.
- Composite position: The 59.7 score (moderate) sits above the regional average of 54.9 and ranks #2 of 7.
- Credibility gap: The gap scores 100/100 because CPI of 6.8% is 1.8pp above the 5.0% band.
- Inflation target: Price growth runs well above the band, so price stability is off target.
- Policy stance: No policy rate or statement data is available, so behind-the-curve and communication scores are N/A.
- Geopolitics: Pressure reads 47.8, driven mainly by domestic crime and court stories rather than foreign policy.
- Near-term watch: The next CPI print decides whether the gap narrows or stays open.
Peer context
Rank 2/7 in South Asia · 86th percentile
Region avg 54.9 · best 59.9 · worst 50.2
Ranked either side
- Bhutan 59.9
- Nepal 57.5
- Bangladesh 53.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -10.0%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -2.2%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +0.8%
- as of 2024-06-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 207.7 | 2026-06-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 1.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 1.4 | 2024-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.8% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 5.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 108.9K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -10.1% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 6.7% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 2.9 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 41.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.3% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 58.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $5,002 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 73.5% | 2015-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 47.3% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.