Country
Colombia COL
BanRep
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.7
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap85.3
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve64.3
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-02 · coverage: gold
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical46.2
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Growth46.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity41.7
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance42.9
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Colombia sovereign credibility, in brief
Colombia scores 57.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 2 of 5 in South America, the 80th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.3 points over the past seven days. CPI 6.2% vs 3.0% target (+3.2pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (58/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctColombia's credibility position is weak: inflation runs 3.2 points above the target band, and the policy rate is still a high 12.2%.
- Composite score: At 57.7, Colombia ranks second of five in South America and sits 8 points above the regional average of 49.7.
- Credibility gap: The gap score of 85.3 reflects CPI at 6.2% against a 3.0% target band.
- Policy stance: The real policy rate is about 6 points, but the behind-the-curve score of 64.3 shows the bank is reacting late to inflation.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is moderate at 46.2, driven mainly by armed-group violence and extortion, which matter more for security than for the macro outlook.
- Watch item: The next monthly CPI print and the BanRep board decision will show whether the bank is closing the gap to target.
Peer context
Rank 2/5 in South America · 80th percentile
Region avg 49.7 · best 58.6 · worst 19.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +9.7%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +2.9%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +4.0%
- as of 2025-12-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 12.2% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 160.4 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -2.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 7.2 | 2025-12-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 2.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.0 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 1.4M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 4.9% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 2.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 7.3 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 35.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 8.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 8.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 49.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $8,562 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 71.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 64.0% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.