Country
Israel ISR
BOI
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -1.3
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve48.7
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-09-30 · coverage: gold
Communication23.1
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical39.6
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: gold
Growth26.4
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity46.5
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance61.4
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Israel sovereign credibility, in brief
Israel scores 55.3 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 7 of 10 in Middle East, the 40th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 1.0 points over the past seven days. CPI 1.5% near 2.0% target — on target | credibility under pressure (55/100) | slightly weakening.
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctIsrael scores moderate on credibility at 55.3, ranking 7th of 10 in the region and sitting just above the 53.1 peer average.
- Credibility gap: The score of 100/100 reflects CPI at 1.5%, which sits 0.5pp below the 2.0% target.
- Inflation vs target: Inflation runs below target, so the risk points to undershoot rather than overshoot.
- Policy stance: The 3.2% policy rate scores 48.7 on behind-the-curve, a mid-range reading with no clear lag signal.
- Communication: The stance score of 23.1 is the weakest sub-score and the main drag on credibility.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is moderate at 39.6, led by the Palestinian Authority election delay and Israeli incursions into Quneitra.
- Near-term watch: The next CPI print against 2.0% and any BOI guidance that clarifies the rate path.
Peer context
Rank 7/10 in Middle East · 40th percentile
Region avg 53.1 · best 61.1 · worst 17.4
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -19.3%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.6%
- as of 2026-10-11
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.9% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 105.8 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 2.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 4.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 1.6 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 1.3M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 5.0% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 14.4 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 53.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 3.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 3.0% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $60,337 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 62.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.