Country
Italy ITA
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +1.3
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.2
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-07-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve34.7
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical47.1
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth46.7
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity77.8
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance64.1
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Italy sovereign credibility, in brief
Italy scores 62.3 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 10 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 71st percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 2.7% vs 2.0% target (+0.7pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (62/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctItaly's credibility is adequate at 62.3, and inflation at 2.7% against a 2.0% target is its main weak point.
- Composite position: Italy ranks #10 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, 2.0 points above the regional average of 60.3.
- Credibility gap: The 0.7pp inflation overshoot produces the highest component score at 92.2.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% policy rate is set by the ECB, and communication scores a solid 76.5.
- Geopolitics: The 47.1 pressure score rests mostly on local crime stories, so it likely overstates macro risk.
- Watch item: The next Italian CPI release and ECB decision will show whether the overshoot narrows.
Peer context
Rank 10/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 71th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Estonia 63.7
- Azerbaijan 62.9
- Latvia 61.7
- Ireland 61.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +2.0%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +5.3%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +1.1%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 4.0% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 103.4 | 2026-07-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 1.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 107.0 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 27.8 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 94.5 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 6.1M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -4.0% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 5.7 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 98.0 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 0.6% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 62.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 6.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 6.1% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $43,309 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 49.9% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.