Country
China CHN
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +0.0
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap88.8
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve52.2
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical49.1
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: silver
Growth44.8
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity44.7
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance44.9
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
China sovereign credibility, in brief
China scores 56.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 9 of 14 in East Asia & Pacific, the 43rd percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI 0.5% vs 3.0% target (-2.5pp) — well below target | credibility under pressure (57/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctChina's credibility position is weak: inflation sits far below target while the policy rate holds at 3.0%.
- Composite score: China scores 56.7, moderate and just above the East Asia & Pacific average of 54.8, ranking 9th of 14.
- Inflation gap: CPI is 0.5% against a 3.0% target, a 2.5pp shortfall that drives a credibility gap score of 88.8.
- Policy stance: The 3.0% policy rate scores 52.2 on behind-the-curve, and no central bank statements were scored, so communication is unassessed.
- Geopolitics: Geopolitical pressure is 49.1, with recent headlines coded mostly as conflict, including Indian border reinforcement after Doklam and China-Pakistan drills in Xinjiang.
- Watch item: The next CPI print; a reading near 0.5% with no policy response would widen the credibility gap further.
Peer context
Rank 9/14 in East Asia & Pacific · 43th percentile
Region avg 54.8 · best 65.6 · worst 16.6
Ranked either side
- New Zealand 58.7
- Vanuatu 58.4
- Cambodia 56.6
- Mongolia 52.0
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -11.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.3%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +6.9%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 104.3 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 3.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 217.1 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 862.6 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 0.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 5.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 1.2 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 36.7M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -5.9% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 11.9 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 38.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 4.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.6% | 2022-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 13.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $13,862 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 70.3% | 2018-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -1.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.