Country
Germany DEU
ECB
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +0.7
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap91.2
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve38.7
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical47.4
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: gold
Growth53.1
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity49.9
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance75.8
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Germany sovereign credibility, in brief
Germany scores 61.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 4 of 8 in G10, the 63rd percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 2.9% vs 2.0% target (+0.9pp) — mild overshoot | adequate credibility (62/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctGermany is a middle-ranked G10 credibility case, held back mainly by inflation running above target.
- Composite position: Germany scores 61.7 (adequate), ranking #4 of 8 in G10 and just above the 61.6 regional average.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 2.9% sits 0.9pp above the 2.0% point target, producing a credibility gap score of 91.2.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% policy rate scores 38.7 on behind-the-curve risk, so policy looks broadly in step with inflation.
- Communication strength: Communication scores 76.5, the strongest pillar in the composite.
- Geopolitics: Geopolitical pressure is moderate at 47.4, and most flagged headlines have little macro relevance.
- Near-term watch: Whether the next German CPI print moves 2.9% back toward the 2.0% target.
Peer context
Rank 4/8 in G10 · 63th percentile
Region avg 61.6 · best 67.5 · worst 59.6
Ranked either side
- United States 62.8
- United Kingdom 61.8
- Switzerland 60.5
- Canada 59.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +1.4%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +4.2%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -0.6%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 3.2% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 125.8 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 4.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 720.6 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 40.2 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.5 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 91.8 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 3M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -4.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.1 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 101.9 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 1.9% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 78.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 3.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 3.8% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $60,496 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 61.7% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.