Country
Montenegro MNE
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +2.4
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap83.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-05-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical—
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth45.0
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity36.5
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance56.0
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Montenegro sovereign credibility, in brief
Montenegro scores 57.0 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 24 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 26th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 3.6% vs 2.0% target (+1.6pp) — mild overshoot | credibility under pressure (57/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctMontenegro scores moderate, but its credibility gap is wide because inflation sits well above target.
- Composite position: The score of 57.0 ranks #24 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, below the regional average of 60.3.
- Credibility gap: The gap score is 83.0, driven by CPI of 3.6% against a 2.0% point target.
- Inflation vs target: Inflation runs 1.6 points above target, which is the main drag on credibility.
- Policy stance: Communication scores 76.5, but no policy-rate data is available to test whether rate action matches the words.
- Geopolitics: No significant events were logged in the past 30 days, and no geopolitical pressure score is available.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 3.6% level; a further rise would widen the gap.
Peer context
Rank 24/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 26th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Spain 58.6
- Cyprus 58.0
- North Macedonia 56.8
- Lithuania 56.3
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +50.8%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.6%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -16.7%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +11.8%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 103.5 | 2026-05-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -20.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 0.3 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 7.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 107.3 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 66.9K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -7.9% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 9.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.9 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 144.2 | 2026-06-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 5.9% | 2026-06-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 105.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 13.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 11.5% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 108.6% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $14,817 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 63.7% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.