Country
France FRA
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +0.6
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.3
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve35.5
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical47.0
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth31.7
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity63.2
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance68.3
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
France sovereign credibility, in brief
France scores 59.4 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 18 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 45th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 2.4% near 2.0% target — on target | credibility under pressure (59/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctFrance ranks 18th of 31 in the region, with a composite of 59.4, just under the regional average of 60.3.
- Composite position: The moderate score of 59.4 sits 0.9 points below the regional average.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 2.4% runs 0.4pp above the 2.0% point target.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% policy rate is set by the ECB, not by France, so read the stance as euro-area policy.
- Credibility gap: The 92.3 gap score looks high for a 0.4pp miss, so check its weighting before treating it as a signal.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is moderate at 47.0, but the event feed is noisy and mostly unrelated to France.
- Watch item: The next CPI print is the test; a reading above 2.4% would keep the credibility gap wide.
Peer context
Rank 18/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 45th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.3 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Austria 61.0
- Belgium 60.9
- Turkmenistan 59.1
- Belarus 58.9
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -18.2%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.0%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +9.3%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +3.2%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 4.0% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 103.3 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 328.6 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 33.9 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.6 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 103.7 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 2.8M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 1.7% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 1.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.4 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 107.9 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 1.6% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 67.2% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 7.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 7.7% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $48,986 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 57.0% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.