Country
Mexico MEX
Banxico
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.8
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve39.1
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication51.1
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical42.8
GDELT · as of 2026-10-11 · coverage: gold
Growth30.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Liquidity59.5
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Governance38.6
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: gold
Mexico sovereign credibility, in brief
Mexico scores 55.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 1 of 1 in Central America, the 100th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 3.3% near 3.0% target — on target | credibility under pressure (56/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctBanxico's credibility scores moderate at 55.7, with inflation inside its 2–4% tolerance band but a maximum credibility-gap score that needs checking.
- Composite position: The 55.7/100 composite is moderate and ranks #1 of 1 in Central America, so the dataset has no regional peer to compare against.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 3.3% runs 0.3pp above the 3.0% target yet stays inside the tolerance band.
- Policy stance: The 6.5% policy rate scores 39.1 on behind-the-curve, the lowest of the four component scores.
- Geopolitics: Geopolitical pressure reads 42.8, driven by ten recent events that all carry the most conflictual Goldstein score, mostly Sinaloa and Oaxaca violence.
- Near-term watch: The next CPI release and Banxico rate decision will show whether inflation holds inside the band.
Peer context
Rank 1/1 in Central America · 100th percentile
Region avg 55.7 · best 55.7 · worst 55.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -20.0%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +0.3%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +1.9%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 9.2% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 145.5 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Economic policy uncertainty | 209.4 | 2026-07-01 | EPU (Baker-Bloom-Davis) |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 33.5 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 2.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Geopolitical risk | 0.1 | 2026-09-01 | GPR (Caldara–Iacoviello) |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 7.1M | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 3.5% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 3.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.7 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 79.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 2.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 2.5% | 2026-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 32.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $13,889 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 50.3% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 59.5% | 2026-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | -0.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.