Country
Croatia HRV
HNB
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +4.8
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap64.5
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-05-01 · coverage: gold
Behind the curve34.2
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: gold
Communication76.5
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Geopolitical47.4
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Growth56.5
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Liquidity41.6
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Governance60.6
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: gold
Croatia sovereign credibility, in brief
Croatia scores 51.5 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 8 of 9 in East Europe, the 22nd percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.2 points over the past seven days. CPI 5.2% vs 2.0% target (+3.2pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (52/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctCroatia's credibility position is weak, ranking eighth of nine in East Europe with a composite of 51.5.
- Composite score: At 51.5 (moderate), Croatia sits 6.6 points below the regional average of 58.1.
- Credibility gap: CPI at 5.2% is 3.2pp above the 2.0% point target, giving a gap score of 64.5.
- Policy stance: The 2.5% policy rate leaves real rates near -2.7pp, and the behind-the-curve score is 34.2.
- Communication: The stance score of 76.5 is the strongest component, so official messaging runs ahead of rate action.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 47.4, but the flagged events are mostly local crime with little macro link.
- Watch item: The next HNB rate decision and monthly CPI print will show whether tightening follows the inflation overshoot.
Peer context
Rank 8/9 in East Europe · 22th percentile
Region avg 58.1 · best 70.3 · worst 45.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- +13.0%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.5%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -7.0%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- -1.2%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 104.8 | 2026-05-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -2.1% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 1.5 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 4.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 3.4% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 99.2 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 383.7K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -11.6% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 7.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 0.7 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 116.3 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 0.6% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 101.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 5.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.9% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $27,104 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 54.1% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.