Country
Iceland ISL
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d -1.2
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap73.8
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve35.3
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-06 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical49.7
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth41.6
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity42.1
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance79.1
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Iceland sovereign credibility, in brief
Iceland scores 54.0 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 30 of 31 in Europe & Central Asia, the 7th percentile of the region. The score has fallen 1.6 points over the past seven days. CPI 5.6% vs 2.5% target (+3.1pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (54/100) | slightly weakening.
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctIceland's credibility gap is high at 73.8, driven by inflation of 5.6% against a 2.5% target.
- Composite position: The composite score is 54.0 (moderate), ranking 30th of 31 in Europe & Central Asia against a regional average of 60.3.
- Inflation gap: CPI runs 3.1pp above the 2.5% point target.
- Policy stance: The 8.0% policy rate leaves a real rate of about 2.4%, but the behind-the-curve score is only moderate at 35.3.
- Geopolitics: The geopolitical pressure score is 49.7, and the recent events are mostly unrelated to Iceland's economy.
- Watch item: The next CPI print and rate decision will test whether the gap is narrowing.
Peer context
Rank 30/31 in Europe & Central Asia · 7th percentile
Region avg 60.3 · best 68.4 · worst 47.4
Ranked either side
- Kosovo 55.1
- Bosnia and Herzegovina 54.5
- Kyrgyz Republic 47.4
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -4.7%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- +3.8%
- as of 2026-10-10
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 104.3 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | -3.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | -0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 1.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 641.4K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -28.3% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 5.3 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 82.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 3.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 4.4% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $98,323 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 80.1% | 2023-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 75.6% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.8 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.5 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 1.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.