Country
Botswana BWA
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d +4.7
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap79.4
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-08-01 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve—
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.5
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth28.0
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity63.4
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance60.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Botswana sovereign credibility, in brief
Botswana scores 54.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 20 of 43 in Sub-Saharan Africa, the 56th percentile of the region. The score has risen 0.1 points over the past seven days. CPI 9.3% vs 4.5% target (+4.8pp) — moderate overshoot | credibility under pressure (55/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctBotswana ranks #20 of 44 in Sub-Saharan Africa, but inflation at 9.3% is about double its 4.5% target, so the credibility gap is wide.
- Composite: The score is 54.7 (moderate), 5.4 points above the regional average of 49.3.
- Credibility gap: The gap score is 79.4, driven by CPI running 4.8pp above target.
- Policy stance: No policy rate or scored central bank statements were supplied, so stance cannot be assessed.
- Inflation vs target: Price growth is well outside the 4.5% band, which weakens the credibility case.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 48.5, and most headlines are domestic or about citizens held in Ukraine.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 4.5% target will show whether the gap is narrowing.
Peer context
Rank 20/43 in Sub-Saharan Africa · 56th percentile
Region avg 49.3 · best 61.7 · worst 14.1
Ranked either side
- Gambia, The 55.7
- Central African Republic 55.1
- Mauritius 54.4
- Cameroon 53.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -2.1%
- as of 2026-10-11
Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade
Key indicators
External & activity
| Cpi monthly index | 149.5 | 2026-08-01 | ILO CPI |
| Current account (% GDP) | 2.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | -3.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | -0.7% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 82.8K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -59.1% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.8% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 4.7 mo | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 69.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 24.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 24.4% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 11.9% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $7,778 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 19.7% | 2023-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 69.1% | 2024-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 1.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.