EM Policy Credibility — Weekly Briefing (2026-08-31)
Switzerland's credibility score collapsed by 20 points this week, the largest decline among emerging markets, driven by a sharp deterioration in communication stance.
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Switzerland crater: Composite credibility fell from 61.4 to 41.4 (–20.0) as Communication Stance dropped 21.0 points, signaling a major shift in policy messaging or transparency.
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Indonesia weakens: Credibility declined 10.6 points (58.5→47.9), with Growth subcomponent down 13.3, reflecting economic performance concerns.
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Fiji stumbles: Score fell 10.5 points (48.1→37.7) driven by a 11.8-point Growth decline, the steepest growth-related drag among movers.
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Bahamas slips: Composite dropped 5.0 points (56.2→51.2) despite a severe 14.6-point Growth collapse, suggesting partial offset from other components.
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Lebanon improves: Only gainer this week, up 4.8 points (21.8→26.6) as Credibility Gap narrowed by 5.3, a modest rebound from a very low base.
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Mauritania friction: Score fell 3.8 points (46.5→42.7) though Growth component plummeted 29.5 points, indicating strong support from other credibility dimensions.
Note: Ten major data sources degraded this week (BIS, EMBER, EPU, FAO, FRED, IMF CPI/IFS/MFS, OECD, World Bank), limiting full visibility on underlying economic trends.
Movers
| Country | Before | After | Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Switzerland (CHE) | 61.4 | 41.4 | -20.0 | Communication Stance |
| Indonesia (IDN) | 58.5 | 47.9 | -10.6 | Growth |
| Fiji (FJI) | 48.1 | 37.7 | -10.5 | Growth |
| Bahamas, The (BHS) | 56.2 | 51.2 | -5.0 | Growth |
| Lebanon (LBN) | 21.8 | 26.6 | +4.8 | Credibility Gap |
| Mauritania (MRT) | 46.5 | 42.7 | -3.8 | Growth |
Data caveat: the following sources are currently degraded and may lag: BIS_POLICY_RATES, EMBER, EPU, FAO, FRED_CPI, IMF_CTOT, IMF_IFS_CPI, IMF_MFS, OECD_CPI, WB_NIGHTLIGHTS.