EM Policy Credibility — Weekly Briefing (2026-10-05)
Poland's credibility score collapsed this week, marking the panel's sharpest move.
- Poland decline: Composite credibility fell 4.8 points (68.5 to 63.6) driven by a 38.6-point collapse in Behind the Curve.
- Botswana rebound: Score rose 4.7 points (49.9 to 54.6), with Credibility Gap improving by 31.2 points.
- Algeria advance: Composite score climbed 4.0 points (49.7 to 53.6) as Liquidity improved by 6.3 points.
- Mauritania decline: Score fell 3.3 points (49.0 to 45.8) as Growth fell 28.5 points.
- Data gaps: Eight sources degraded this week (policy rates, energy, uncertainty, inflation metrics, terms of trade, and economic activity), limiting the completeness of this week's assessment.
Movers
| Country | Before | After | Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poland (POL) | 68.5 | 63.6 | -4.8 | Behind the Curve |
| Botswana (BWA) | 49.9 | 54.6 | +4.7 | Credibility Gap |
| Algeria (DZA) | 49.7 | 53.6 | +4.0 | Liquidity |
| Mauritania (MRT) | 49.0 | 45.8 | -3.3 | Growth |
Data caveat: the following sources are currently degraded and may lag: BIS_POLICY_RATES, EMBER, EPU, FRED_CPI, ILO_CPI, IMF_CTOT, OECD_CPI, WB_NIGHTLIGHTS.