EM Policy Credibility — Weekly Briefing (2026-08-17)

Emerging-market policy credibility improved across five jurisdictions this week, with Rwanda posting the strongest gain. Rwanda's composite score rose 6.7 points to 40.8, driven by a 7.5-point jump in the Credibility Gap metric, suggesting narrowing divergence between policy commitments and observable outcomes. Georgia followed closely with a 6.4-point advance to 46.8, propelled by an 8.8-point surge in its Geopolitical Pressure component, reflecting potential shifts in external risk perception or policy adjustments in response to regional dynamics.

Greece improved 4.8 points to 52.3, with a pronounced 12.5-point rise in Credibility Gap indicating substantial closing of the gap between stated and demonstrated policy credibility. Slovenia's 3.6-point gain to 59.5 was anchored by a remarkable 21.0-point increase in Communication Stance, suggesting markedly improved clarity or consistency in policy signaling. Fiji rounded out the movers with a 3.4-point climb to 43.8, supported by a 4.2-point advance in its Growth component.

Notably, several data sources—including BIS policy rates, emissions data, uncertainty indices, and official inflation statistics—were degraded this week, which may limit the completeness of the underlying assessment across inflation metrics and monetary-policy transmission channels.

Movers

Data caveat: the following sources are currently degraded and may lag: BIS_POLICY_RATES, EMBER, EPU, EUROSTAT, FAO, FRED_CPI, IMF_CTOT, IMF_IFS_CPI, IMF_MFS, OECD_CPI, WB_NIGHTLIGHTS.