EM Policy Credibility — Weekly Briefing (2026-08-24)

Somalia's composite credibility score deteriorated sharply this week, falling 5.1 points to 37.7, driven primarily by a severe widening of its Credibility Gap, which declined 27.9 points. The scale of this gap expansion signals a material disconnect between policy commitments and observable outcomes, marking a significant credibility setback for the Federal Republic.

Fiji moved in the opposite direction, gaining 4.3 points to reach 48.1, buoyed by a 7.7-point improvement in its Growth component. This positive momentum in growth metrics provides a counterweight to regional volatility, though the gains remain modest in absolute terms.

It should be noted that eleven major data sources—including BIS policy rates, EMBER energy data, EPU indices, EUROSTAT, FAO, FRED CPI, IMF country and financial statistics, OECD CPI, and World Bank nightlights—were degraded this week, which may limit the granularity of underlying assessments.

Movers

Data caveat: the following sources are currently degraded and may lag: BIS_POLICY_RATES, EMBER, EPU, EUROSTAT, FAO, FRED_CPI, IMF_CTOT, IMF_IFS_CPI, IMF_MFS, OECD_CPI, WB_NIGHTLIGHTS.