Country
New Zealand NZL
score date 2026-10-10 · 30d -0.6
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap92.7
IMF / national CPI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve41.3
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-10-02 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.3
GDELT · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Growth32.6
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Liquidity44.5
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
Governance83.5
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-10 · coverage: silver
New Zealand sovereign credibility, in brief
New Zealand scores 58.7 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 7 of 14 in East Asia & Pacific, the 57th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 3.1% vs 2.0% target (+1.1pp) — mild overshoot | credibility under pressure (59/100).
As of 2026-10-10 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 11 Oct · score 10 OctNew Zealand's main concern is its credibility gap: CPI sits 1.1pp above target while the policy rate is below inflation.
- Composite position: The 58.7 score ranks #7 of 14 in the region and sits above the 54.8 regional average.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 3.1% runs 1.1pp above the 2.0% target, which drives a 92.7 credibility gap.
- Policy stance: The 2.8% policy rate sits below inflation, a loose real stance, and scores 41.3 on behind-the-curve.
- Communication gap: No central bank statements were scored, so communication is unassessed.
- Geopolitics: Pressure scores 48.3, but most of the event feed is non-economic or non-NZ news, so the score is weakly grounded.
- Watch item: The next CPI print against the 2.0% target and any policy rate move.
Peer context
Rank 7/14 in East Asia & Pacific · 57th percentile
Region avg 54.8 · best 65.6 · worst 16.6
Ranked either side
- Timor-Leste 61.3
- Papua New Guinea 59.3
- Vanuatu 58.4
- China 56.7
90-day trend
External pulse
- Port trade momentum, 30d YoY
- -24.5%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -0.7%
- as of 2026-10-11
- Electricity demand, YoY
- -1.1%
- as of 2026-05-01
Sources: Kpler; UN Global Platform; IMF PortWatch (portwatch.imf.org) · Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
Inflation & rates
| 10Y sovereign yield | 4.7% | 2026-08-01 | FRED |
External & activity
| Current account (% GDP) | -3.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 3.4 | 2026-05-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 1.3% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 0.5% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 266.8K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | 1.8% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 0.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 3.9 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 50.7% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 5.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 5.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| GDP per capita (USD) | $49,591 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Government debt (% GDP) | 52.0% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 70.5% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | 1.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 1.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | 1.2 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 1.9 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | 1.7 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | 1.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.