Country
Serbia SRB
NBS
score date 2026-10-09 · 30d +0.3
Seven dimensions
Credibility gap100.0
IMF / national CPI · as of 2025-12-31 · coverage: silver
Behind the curve65.5
BIS policy rates + CPI · as of 2026-09-30 · coverage: silver
Communication—
Central-bank statements · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Geopolitical48.8
GDELT · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Growth43.3
World Bank WDI / IMF WEO · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Liquidity54.3
IMF BOP / BIS / FRED · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Governance44.8
World Bank WGI · as of 2026-10-09 · coverage: silver
Serbia sovereign credibility, in brief
Serbia scores 62.6 out of 100 on the composite sovereign credibility index — credibility band 50–65. That ranks it 4 of 9 in East Europe, the 67th percentile of the region. The score is unchanged over the past seven days. CPI 2.8% near 3.0% target — on target | adequate credibility (63/100).
As of 2026-10-09 · scored daily from public data under methodology v8
Executive summary
written 10 Oct · score 9 OctSerbia ranks fourth of nine in East Europe, with inflation inside its band and a policy rate that looks high for current prices.
- Composite position: The score of 62.6 is adequate and sits 4.5 points above the regional average of 58.1.
- Inflation vs target: CPI at 2.8% is 0.2pp under the 3.0% target, inside the band.
- Policy stance: A 5.8% policy rate implies a real rate near 3pp, and the model flags policy as behind the curve at 65.5.
- Geopolitics: Pressure is moderate at 48.8, led by the arrival of Rybar project founders in Belgrade and possible US extradition talk.
- Communication gap: No scored central bank statements exist, so forward guidance is unmeasured.
- Watch item: The next NBS rate decision and any extradition move on the Rybar founders.
Peer context
Rank 4/9 in East Europe · 67th percentile
Region avg 58.1 · best 70.3 · worst 45.5
90-day trend
External pulse
- Commodity terms-of-trade, 12m change
- -1.4%
- as of 2026-10-10
- Electricity demand, YoY
- +0.4%
- as of 2026-06-01
- Industrial production, YoY
- +1.5%
- as of 2026-05-01
Terms-of-trade: IMF Commodity Terms of Trade · Electricity: Ember (CC BY 4.0) · Industrial production: Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0)
Key indicators
External & activity
| Current account (% GDP) | -4.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Electricity demand (TWh) | 2.6 | 2026-06-01 | Ember |
| FDI inflows (% GDP) | 3.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP growth, annual | 2.0% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Industrial production index (2021=100) | 110.8 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Nightlights radiance (monthly sum) | 556.4K | 2025-12-01 | World Bank / NASA Black Marble |
| Nightlights radiance, YoY | -13.9% | 2025-12-01 | derived |
| Remittances (% GDP) | 6.6% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Reserves (months of imports) | 6.2 mo | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Retail sales volume index (2021=100) | 121.4 | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Retail sales volume, YoY | 7.0% | 2026-05-01 | Eurostat |
| Trade openness (% GDP) | 112.9% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate | 7.1% | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Unemployment rate (ILO) | 7.3% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
Structure
| External debt (% GNI) | 62.2% | 2024-12-31 | World Bank |
| GDP per capita (USD) | $15,262 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| Labor force participation | 59.0% | 2025-12-31 | ILO |
| WGI: control of corruption | -0.6 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: government effectiveness | 0.0 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: political stability | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: regulatory quality | 0.1 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: rule of law | -0.3 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
| WGI: voice & accountability | -0.4 | 2025-12-31 | World Bank |
Eurostat, © European Union (CC BY 4.0) · Nightlights: World Bank / NASA Black Marble VIIRS (CC BY 4.0)
Follow the moves
Every figure above is recomputed daily from public data, with the source and as-of date shown for each one. The weekly briefing says which scores moved, and why.